Forex market analysis: 7 March 2025

2025/3/7

Gold remains a key player in uncertain times, holding steady as traders weigh their next moves. Balancing recent gains with economic uncertainty, investors are closely watching shifting trade policies, Federal Reserve decisions, and key economic reports. As markets stay cautious, gold continues to be a go-to safe-haven asset, reflecting broader trends in risk and currency movements.

Gold prices remain steady as traders secure profits

Gold prices held their ground on Friday, hovering around USD 2,914 per ounce, as investors took profits following the week’s upward momentum.

The precious metal remains on course for a 1.6% weekly gain, driven by ongoing trade uncertainty and anticipation of key US economic data.

The session concluded with gold at USD 2,913.87, marking a 0.2% decline from previous levels, while US gold futures dropped 0.5% to USD 2,911.90.

Earlier in the day, bullion touched a peak of USD 2,914.82 before briefly retreating to USD 2,896.84 as traders adjusted positions ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced the suspension of the newly imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to provide support for gold, as market participants assess potential economic consequences.

Technical analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at USD 2,913.87, down 0.20% for the session.

The price briefly dipped to USD 2,896.84, where buyers stepped in to offer support, before climbing to a session high of USD 2,914.82 and pulling back.

Gold steadies near USD 2,914 as buyers test key resistance, as seen on the VT Markets app.

Moving averages (5, 10, 30) suggest mixed signals, with price action stabilising near resistance levels.

Additionally, the MACD indicates a possible bullish crossover, hinting at a shift in momentum towards buyers if gold surpasses USD 2,920.

A breakout above USD 2,920 could lead to a test of the USD 2,930 – USD 2,940 range, where selling pressure may emerge.

On the downside, key support is seen at USD 2,891, with a breach of this level potentially pushing prices towards USD 2,880.

Traders should remain attentive to US economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy signals, and overall market sentiment, as these elements will heavily influence gold’s next move.

Furthermore, the US dollar index remains under pressure, which has provided additional support for gold prices.

Persistent currency market volatility suggests investors remain cautious about the global economic outlook.

Federal Reserve outlook and jobs data in focus

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has indicated that while he does not support an interest rate cut in the March meeting, easing later in the year remains a possibility if inflation continues to trend lower.

Market participants are now awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report, which is projected to show a 160,000 job increase for February.

Should the data fall short of expectations, it may reinforce the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months, potentially boosting gold prices further.

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