Midweek trading will be influenced by key inflation data from Australia, business investment trends in the US, and global risk sentiment. Investors will be assessing how these data points align with central bank policy expectations, particularly after the Federal Reserve’s recent rate decision.
KEY INDICATORS
Australia CPI (Q1 2025)
A critical inflation report that could shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate outlook.
Higher-than-expected inflation may push the RBA to maintain a hawkish stance, impacting the Australian dollar and equity markets.
US durable goods orders (February)
A key indicator of business investment trends and overall economic momentum.
Weak data may fuel concerns about slowing US economic growth, affecting equities and bond yields.
Market positioning post-Fed decision & ahead of US GDP (28 March)
Investors will continue adjusting portfolios based on the Fed’s latest outlook on inflation and rate policy.
With US GDP data due later in the week, markets may see cautious trading and volatility.
MARKET MOVERS
Crude Oil WTI
Possible long preference
Long positions above 69.85 with targets at 70.23 & 70.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 69.31 look for further downside with 68.99 & 68.49 as targets.
The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Oil prices rise; US crude inventories plunge, Russia-Ukraine truce eyed
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, on course for a sixth consecutive session of gains, after US crude stockpiles fell sharply below forecasts, adding to concerns about tighter global supply.
At 12:55 PM GMT, Brent oil futures expiring in May traded 0.9% higher at USD 73.07 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1% to USD 69.67 per barrel.
US crude stocks drop sharply
Both contracts hit their highest in three weeks in the previous session, after the American Petroleum Institute reported a significant drawdown of 4.6 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending 21 March 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 2.5 million barrel decline.
The substantial drawdown in crude inventories indicates a strengthening in US petroleum demand.
Oil was further supported by President Trump’s Monday announcement, threatening to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from countries that purchase oil or gas from Venezuela, effective 2 April.
Gold prices fall slightly, copper whipsaws on Trump tariff report
Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Wednesday, facing some more profit-taking as traders awaited more cues on US President Donald Trump’s plans for increased trade tariffs.
Gold still remained above the USD 3,000 an ounce mark and was close to record highs hit earlier in March. Appetite for havens, despite some recent blips, remained mostly resilient.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to USD 3,015.73/oz.
Gold futures expiring in May fell 0.2% to USD 3,048.25/oz by 4:29 AM GMT.
Beyond tariffs, focus this week is on a host of readings for more cues on the US economy.
Durable goods data is due later on Wednesday, followed by a revised reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. PCE price index data—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—is due on Friday.
Several Fed officials are also set to speak in the coming days.
Platinum futures fell 0.5% to USD 970.00/oz.
Silver futures fell 0.2% to USD 34.123/oz.
XAU/USD
Possible long preference
Long positions above 3030.87 with targets at 3041.08 & 3054.83 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 3015.03 look for further downside with 3004.43 & 2994.21 as targets.
The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
European shares close higher on hopes of softer US tariffs; Bayer regains 5%
European markets closed higher on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the scope and breadth of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.67% higher, with most sectors and all major bourses in positive territory.
Germany’s DAX led regional gains, up 1.13%, after a survey showed improved business sentiment in the country.
Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both ended around 1.1% higher.
The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index drops more than 2% as investors assess Trump tariff threats
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ended the day 2.35% lower at 23,344.25.
The Hang Seng Tech index plunged 3.82% to 5,517.52.
Meanwhile, mainland China’s CSI 300 closed flat at 3,932.30.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.46% higher at 37,780.54.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index fell 0.62% to 2,615.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day flat at 7,942.50.
Trump says tariffs coming in April will ‘probably be more lenient than reciprocal’
President Donald Trump said that tariffs will likely be more “lenient than reciprocal,” as the 2 April tariff deadline looms for a number of levies to go into effect.
The comments come as investors worry that a more severe approach signalled by the Trump administration would dampen consumer and corporate sentiment enough to slow down the US economy.
Stocks have struggled recently, with the S&P 500 dropping 3% in the past month.
The benchmark also dipped into correction territory amid the tariff pressures, briefly trading more than 10% below a record set in February.
