The new trading week kicks off with key economic data from Europe and the US, setting the tone for market sentiment ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the week. Investors will be closely watching inflation trends and housing market indicators for clues on economic momentum.
KEY INDICATORS
Eurozone final CPI (February)
A confirmation of inflation trends in the eurozone.
Any surprises could impact European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations and the euro.
US NAHB housing market index (March)
A key measure of sentiment among homebuilders.
Could provide insights into the strength of the US housing sector amidst interest rate uncertainty.
Market positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting
With the Fed set to announce its rate decision on Wednesday, investors may adopt a cautious stance.
Potential positioning in bonds, equities, and the US dollar in anticipation of policy signals.
MARKET MOVERS
XAU/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 2996.44 with targets at 3006.05 & 3018.74 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 2980.30 look for further downside with 2967.23 & 2948.59 as targets. A support base at 2980.30 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Gold prices hover around USD 3,000; UBS lifts its price target
Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Monday after surging to record highs, as safe-haven demand remained underpinned by uncertainty over trade tariffs and a slowing economy.
Gold also saw some profit-taking after reaching record highs above USD 3,000 an ounce last week.
Spot gold rose slightly to USD 2,997.25 an ounce.
Gold futures expiring in April climbed to USD 3,004.70 an ounce by 10:38 AM GMT. Spot prices hit a record high of USD 3,005.08 an ounce on Friday.
Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.1% to USD 9,805.40 a tonne.
May copper futures were flat at USD 4.8950 a pound.
Oil, dollars, and debt: how safe is the Middle East from the global trade war?
For the Middle East, which has been spared from tariffs (so far), there are still reasons to worry – as well as potential opportunities.
The blow to growth from a trade war is likely to hurt the price of oil – the mainstay of the region’s economy.
There are also immediate costs for countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain.
The direct impact of tariffs, such as US levies on steel and aluminium imports, remains minimal for the Middle East, economists say. The Gulf region, for instance, accounted for roughly 16% of US aluminium imports in 2024.
Crude Oil WTI
Possible long preference Long positions above 67.98 with targets at 68.49 & 69.15 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 66.88 look for further downside with 66.47 & 65.88 as targets. The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
US stocks stable after retail sales rebound; Fed meeting due
US stocks stabilised on Monday after last week’s losses, but investors remained concerned that uncertainty over trade tariffs could weigh heavily on the world’s largest economy.
At 1:35 PM GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 100 points, or 0.2%.
The S&P 500 index rose 11 points, or 0.2%.
The Nasdaq Composite edged 10 points higher, or 0.1%.
The Nasdaq sank deeper into correction territory last week, while the S&P 500 also briefly entered correction territory. Meanwhile, the Dow had its biggest one-week drop since 2023, losing 4.4%.
European markets rise ahead of German debt reform vote; QinetiQ down 20%
European stocks started the new trading week in positive territory, although investors will be watching to see if global market volatility continues.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up around 0.8% by 1:50 a.m. London time, with most sectors moving higher.
European markets ended last week higher after reports that German lawmakers were moving closer to reforming the country’s so-called debt brake rule.
Investors will be closely monitoring US markets this week after the Dow posted its worst weekly performance since 2023, as investors grapple with President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies alongside growing signs of economic weakness.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly climb; 40-year JGB yield hits record high
Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Monday, with investors keeping a close watch on Chinese equities.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 closed 0.24% lower at 3,996.79.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.77% in its final hour of trading.
In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 0.93% higher at 37,396.52.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 1.73% to close at 2,610.69.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 ticked up 0.35%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the day 0.83% higher at 7,854.10.
