On Wednesday, 16 April 2025, global markets are poised for significant movements as investors digest key economic data releases and central bank communications amid ongoing trade tensions and market volatility.
KEY INDICATORS
Central bank activities
Federal Reserve: Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, with markets closely monitoring for any indications regarding future monetary policy amid current economic uncertainties.
Bank of Canada: Holding a policy meeting today, with a 40% probability of a rate cut priced in by markets, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation.
United States
Retail sales (March): Expected to rise by 1.4% month-on-month, indicating potential resilience in consumer spending despite recent economic headwinds.
Industrial production (March): Forecast to decline by 0.2%, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
Manufacturing and trade inventories and sales: Scheduled for release at 9:00 am ET, providing insights into business inventory levels and sales trends.
EIA crude oil inventory report: Will offer data on US oil stockpiles, potentially influencing energy markets.
United Kingdom
Consumer price index (March): Inflation slowed to 2.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in February, primarily due to declining fuel prices and stable recreation and culture costs.
Core CPI (March): Also decreased, reflecting easing price pressures in the UK economy.
MARKET MOVERS
Crude Oil WTI
Possible short preference
Short positions below 60.64 with targets at 59.88 and 58.94 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 61.74, look for further upside with 62.42 and 63.11 as targets.
The RSI shows downside momentum.
Oil slips as markets assess impact of US-China trade war
Oil prices fell on Wednesday as shifting US tariff policies and the US-China trade war prompt traders to consider the potential impact on economic growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.6%, to USD 64.28 a barrel by 7:58 AM GMT.
US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 43 cents, or 0.7%, to USD 60.90.
Concerns over Trump’s escalating tariffs, combined with rising output from the OPEC+ group — comprising OPEC and allies such as Russia — have already dragged oil prices down by about 13% this month.
Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-watering levels, prompting Beijing to slap retaliatory duties on US imports in an intensifying trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Data on Wednesday showed China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% year on year in the first quarter, beating the 5.1% expected in a Reuters poll.
Meanwhile, US crude oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended 11 April.
Petrol inventories fell by 3 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels.
Gold prices hit record high near USD 3,300/oz on trade jitters, Nvidia warning
Gold prices hit a record high in Asian trade on Wednesday, benefiting from sustained safe haven demand as markets fretted over US-China trade tensions and an impairment warning from Nvidia.
The yellow metal was also aided by weakness in the dollar, as investors dumped US Treasuries amid heightened uncertainty over the US economy under President Donald Trump.
Spot gold jumped 1.7% to a record high of USD 3,283.63 an ounce.
Gold futures expiring in June hit a peak of USD 3,299.52/oz.
Gold upbeat as US trade jitters persist
This came as Trump dialled up trade pressure on China with a cumulative 145% levy.
China retaliated with a 125% tariff on US imports.
However, Trump’s administration signalled that electronics were exempt from his 145% levy on China, while he also recently announced a 90-day exemption from his reciprocal tariffs on other countries.
Other precious metals were mixed amid heightened risk aversion:
Platinum futures fell 0.1% to USD 968.95/oz.
Silver futures rose 0.5% to USD 32.455/oz.
XAU/USD
Possible long preference
Long positions above 3317.26 with targets at 3329.69 and 3345.39 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 3291.10, look for further downside with 3279.98 and 3265.59 as targets.
The RSI shows upside momentum.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
S&P 500 futures slide as Nvidia shares tumble, traders await retail sales data
US stock futures slipped early Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the release of a key retail sales report and more earnings from the first-quarter season.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 328 points, or 0.8%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 1.49% and 2.29%, respectively.
These moves followed a relatively muted Tuesday session, which ultimately saw the three major averages close in the red after back-to-back winning sessions.
The Dow shed nearly 156 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite closed marginally lower.
Europe stocks end 1.6% higher, real estate, banks lead gains on hopes of Trump tariff relief
European markets rose on Tuesday amid tentative optimism that there will be some respite from US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index provisionally ended the day higher by 1.6%.
The UK’s FTSE 100 was up 1.5%.
France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX rose by 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.
This followed a 2.7% jump in the Stoxx Europe 600 index on Monday.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise after tech rally pushes Wall Street higher
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Tuesday after all three key Wall Street benchmarks advanced overnight on a tech rally.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed 0.84% to end the day at 34,267.54, while the broader Topix index advanced 1% to 2,513.35.
In South Korea, the Kospi index added 0.88% to close at 2,477.41, while the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.41% to 711.92.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 moved up 0.17% to close at 7,761.70.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.23% higher at 21,466.27.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 ended the day flat at 3,761.23.
