Forex market analysis: 11 March 2025

2025/3/11

Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum as market uncertainty and investor caution keep selling pressure high. A key support level has been broken, raising concerns about further drops, but some traders see potential for a short-term rebound. With external factors adding to the volatility, it’s an important moment to watch the market closely and stay informed.

BTCUSD extends losses below USD 80,000 as bearish pressure persists

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) continued its downward trajectory, slipping to a session low of USD 76,585 before rebounding slightly to trade near USD 80,213.

The ongoing selling pressure has pushed Bitcoin nearly 27% below its record high of USD 109,000, which was reached in January.

Market sentiment remains cautious, largely due to uncertainty and declining confidence. The Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish stance, signalling that interest rates may stay elevated for an extended period, has further weighed on investor appetite for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

CME gap suggests potential rebound

Traders are keeping a close eye on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between USD 83,000 and USD 90,000, created during recent price movements.

Historically, BTCUSD has shown a pattern of filling these gaps, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound.

However, persistent selling pressure continues to cast doubt on a sustained recovery.

Market sentiment weakens as key support breaks

The breach of the crucial USD 83,000 support level, which represents the average purchase price of mid-term holders, indicates deteriorating market confidence.

A failure to reclaim this level swiftly could result in further selling pressure, potentially driving prices lower.

Technical outlook: bearish momentum dominates

BTCUSD remains under selling pressure despite signs of short-term recovery.

BTCUSD strengthens to 80,213.54, testing key resistance at 80,450.79 amid bullish recovery, as seen on the VT Markets app.

The moving averages (MA 5, 10, 30) show a recent crossover, indicating a potential shift in momentum. However, the 30-period MA still acts as a resistance level around USD 80,450, capping upside movements.

The MACD (12,26,9) is turning positive, with the histogram moving above the zero line, suggesting mild bullish divergence. However, the recent low of USD 76,585 remains a critical support level.

A sustained move above USD 80,200 could open the door for a test of the USD 83,000 resistance, aligning with the CME gap.

On the downside, failure to hold above USD 78,000 may trigger a retest of the USD 76,500 level, increasing the likelihood of further declines.

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