The trading week starts with crucial economic data from Asia and Europe, shaping market sentiment worldwide. Investors are watching growth indicators and industrial reports, adjusting their positions ahead of major US inflation data later in the week.
KEY INDICATORS
Japan GDP (Q4 2024 final estimate)
The final reading of Japan’s GDP growth will provide key insights into the country’s economic recovery. Any revisions could impact the JPY and influence broader Asian market sentiment.
UK industrial & manufacturing production (January)
A crucial indicator of the UK’s economic activity, affecting the GBP and shaping investor confidence in Britain’s economic momentum.
Eurozone Sentix investor confidence (March)
A leading gauge of investor sentiment in the Eurozone. A strong reading could signal growing economic optimism, while a weak result may highlight lingering concerns overgrowth.
US market positioning ahead of inflation data
With the US CPI report set for release on Tuesday, traders may take a cautious stance, potentially leading to market consolidation.
MARKET MOVERS
GBP/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 1.29223 with targets at 1.29380 & 1.29590 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 1.28952 look for further downside with 1.28759 & 1.28567 as targets. A support base at 1.28952 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
European markets reverse course to trade lower as volatility persists
European markets edged lower on Monday, erasing earlier gains and extending the volatility seen in global markets last week.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 0.3% at 9:26 a.m. London time, with all major indices in negative territory.
Germany’s DAX fell 0.5%, retreating after a brief early-session rise.
Regional markets closed in the red last Friday, capping off a turbulent week driven by shifting US tariff policies, the latest European Central Bank rate cut, and weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls, which rose by just 151,000 in February.
Japan’s 30-year bond yield hits highest level since 2008; Nikkei leads Asia losses
Asia-Pacific markets declined on Friday as Japanese government bond yields surged to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.
Meanwhile, customs data from China showed that exports rose 2.3% year-on-year in US dollar terms for the January–February period, falling short of the expected 5% increase.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 led regional losses, dropping 2.17% to close at 36,887.17.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.49%, ending the session at 2,563.48.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 plunged 1.81%, reaching a six-month low of 7,948.20.
XAU/USD
Possible long preference Long positions above 2917.80 with targets at 2926.88 & 2940.68 in extension. Alternative scenario Below 2906.78 look for further downside with 2900.75 & 2893.22 as targets. A support base at 2900.75 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Oil steady as tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge
Oil prices remained stable on Monday as concerns over US import tariffs, global economic growth, and fuel demand weighed on investor sentiment. Rising output from OPEC+ producers also dampened appetite for riskier assets.
Brent crude edged down USD 0.11 to USD 70.25 per barrel by 8:56 AM GMT.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped USD 0.17 to USD 66.87 per barrel.
Last week marked WTI’s seventh consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent crude posted its third straight weekly loss.
Gold prices held firm in Asian trading on Monday after modest gains last week, as the US dollar hovered near a four-month low amid uncertainty over US trade policies.
Investors also scrutinised last week’s US jobs report and Federal Reserve Chair’s comments to gauge the central bank’s future interest rate stance.
Spot gold was largely unchanged at USD 2,911.21 per ounce.
Gold futures (April contract) edged up 0.1% to USD 2,918.27 an ounce by 6:05 AM GMT.
Platinum futures remained steady at USD 966.25 an ounce.
Silver futures gained 0.3%, trading at USD 32.943 an ounce.
Dollar steadies after slump; euro retreats after weekly gains
The US dollar edged higher on Monday, rebounding from a four-month low, but remained under pressure amid concerns that Trump administration trade policies could slow economic growth.
At 9:10 AM GMT, the Dollar Index—which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—rose 0.1% to 103.959, just above last week’s four-month low.
EUR/USD dipped 0.2% to 1.0816, retreating after logging its best weekly performance since 2009, driven by Germany’s fiscal reforms.
GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2880, giving up some gains after sterling hit a four-month high of 1.2946 earlier in the session.
USD/JPY dropped 0.6% to 147.17, nearing its lowest level since early October.
