As we enter mid-June, markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by trade tensions, central bank policies, and key economic indicators. Investors are closely monitoring developments that could influence market dynamics in the coming week.
KEY INDICATORS
Foreign exchange market
The European Central Bank’s recent 25 basis point rate cut has impacted the euro’s performance.
Investors are assessing the implications for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP pairs.
US CPI data (11 June): The upcoming US Consumer Price Index report is anticipated to show a year-over-year increase of 2.3%.
President Trump’s decision to delay proposed 50% tariffs on European Union imports until 9 July has provided temporary relief to markets.
Commodities and equities
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown resilience, with investors focusing on upcoming earnings reports from companies like Oracle (11 June) and Adobe (12 June).
Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference is expected to unveil updates to its operating systems and potentially new hardware, which could influence the tech sector.
WTI crude oil prices have declined to four-year lows as OPEC+ accelerates production hikes, raising concerns over potential oversupply in the market.
Gold prices are experiencing slight declines as the US dollar gains strength, impacting demand for the precious metal.
Asian markets and key events
Investors are awaiting Japan’s latest economic data releases, including machinery orders and producer price index figures, to gauge the country’s economic health.
China’s upcoming trade balance report will provide insights into the country’s export and import activities, influencing regional market sentiment.
11 June: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
11 June: Oracle earnings release.
12 June: Adobe earnings release.
13 June: Preliminary US Consumer Sentiment Index.
MARKET MOVERS
Nikkei 225
Technical breakout
The Nikkei 225 is approaching a key resistance zone around 38,280, which has previously acted as a significant barrier. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum.
Support level: On the downside, immediate support is observed near 37,160. A breach below this level may indicate a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
Target projection
Upside target: Should the index break above 38,280, the next target could be around 40,000, aligning with forecasts that anticipate a 4.6% rise by the end of June 2025.
Downside target: Conversely, if the index fails to hold above 37,160, it may retreat towards the 36,000 support level.
Opening expectation
The Nikkei 225 closed at 37,741.61 on Friday, 6 June 2025, reflecting a 0.5% gain amid optimism over renewed US–China trade talks.
Given this positive sentiment, the index may open the week with a bullish bias, potentially testing the 38,000 level.
Support zone
Primary support: 37,160 – A critical level that has provided support in recent sessions.
Secondary support: 36,000 – A more substantial support zone that could be tested if the primary support fails.
Strategy
Bullish scenario: If the index breaks above 38,280, consider long positions targeting 40,000, with a stop-loss below 37,160 to manage risk.
Resistance level: The DAX 40 is approaching a key resistance zone around 24,390, which has previously acted as a significant barrier. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum.
Support level: On the downside, immediate support is observed near 24,150. A breach below this level may indicate a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
Target projection
Should the index break above 24,390, the next target could be around 24,500, aligning with recent technical analyses.
Downside target: Conversely, if the index fails to hold above 24,150, it may retreat towards the 24,000 support level, as suggested by recent wave analyses.
Opening expectation
The DAX 40 closed at 24,258.74 on Friday, 6 June 2025, reflecting a 0.3% decline amid cautious sentiment ahead of the US jobs report.
Given this backdrop, the index may open the week with a neutral to slightly bearish bias, potentially testing the 24,150 support level.
Support zone
Primary support: 24,150 – A critical level that has provided support in recent sessions.
Secondary support: 24,000 – A more substantial support zone that could be tested if the primary support fails.
Strategy
Bullish scenario: If the index breaks above 24,390, consider long positions targeting 24,500, with a stop-loss below 24,150 to manage risk.
Resistance levels: The HSI is approaching a critical resistance zone at 24,000, a level that has previously acted as a significant barrier. A decisive breakout above this could signal further bullish momentum.
Support levels: Immediate support is observed near 23,500, with a more substantial support zone at 23,000. A breach below these levels may indicate a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
Target projection
Upside targets: Should the index break above 24,000, the next target could be around 24,874, aligning with the March high. A sustained move beyond this may open the path towards 26,000.
Downside targets: Conversely, if the index fails to hold above 23,500, it may retreat towards the 23,000 support level, with further downside potential to 22,000 if bearish momentum intensifies.
Opening expectation
The HSI closed at 23,846 on Friday, 6 June 2025.
Given the recent positive sentiment driven by optimism over US-China trade talks and a pickup in China’s services sector activity, the index may open the week with a bullish bias, potentially testing the 24,000 resistance level.
Support zone
Primary support: 23,500 – A critical level that has provided support in recent sessions.
Secondary support: 23,000 – A more substantial support zone that could be tested if the primary support fails.
Strategy
Bullish scenario: If the index breaks above 24,000, consider long positions targeting 24,874, with a stop-loss below 23,500 to manage risk.
Global political developments stir market sentiment
US president Trump’s administration has implemented a new travel ban effective 9 June, fully restricting entry to the US from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, and Libya.
Partial visa restrictions have also been applied to seven additional nations such as Cuba and Venezuela, citing national security and visa overstay concerns.
In the UK, internal tensions are growing within Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet ahead of the 11 June spending review, potentially impacting fiscal direction.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to attend high-level China–Africa cooperation meetings and the China–Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Hunan from 10 to 12 June, reinforcing Beijing’s ties with African nations.
Market moves: Currency, oil and equities react to shifting fundamentals
The US dollar is under pressure and heading for a weekly loss amid signs of domestic economic weakness and lingering trade policy uncertainty.
Most major currencies rallied late last week following news of an extended dialogue between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
Key US economic data—such as wholesale inventories and sales figures due on 9 June—could influence short-term currency trends.
Brent crude has climbed to $65.34 per barrel, marking an 8.5% rise from 2025 lows, supported by strong refinery margins and tight inventories despite higher OPEC+ output.
Trafigura has warned of continued commodity market volatility in H2 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and inflation risks.
Equity markets are showing resilience, with the S&P 500’s advance–decline line hitting new highs, suggesting broad-based participation in the rally.
Asia on the move: Optimism amid mixed signals
Asian stock markets are mostly trading higher, buoyed by weaker-than-expected US economic data, which has improved sentiment around interest rate prospects.
The region continues to navigate a challenging environment shaped by global trade negotiations and evolving policy shifts.
Investor focus is now turning to June earnings announcements from major US companies such as Apple, Tesla, Nike, and UnitedHealth Group, which could influence global equity trends.
