Week ahead: OPEC+ set to shake up oil markets

During the week of 26 to 30 May 2025, key economic indicators and global developments are set to shape market sentiment. Investors will focus on US political shifts, Middle East tensions, and central bank signals, while energy and inflation updates may add to short-term volatility.

KEY INDICATORS

Politics and international affairs

• _{Japan’s economic minister to visit the US for tariff talks (30 May–1 June).}
• _{Trump tells Netanyahu he seeks a deal with Iran.}
• _{US considers withdrawing 4,500 troops from South Korea.}
• _{Iran warns of “devastating response” to Israeli actions; links any attack to US involvement.}
• _{Iran states it can develop nuclear weapons but has no intention to do so.}
• _{Trump to attend G7 summit in Canada (15–17 June).}

Monetary policy and economic regulation

• _{Trump’s tax reform bill passed the House, now under Senate review.}
• _{Senate voted to overturn California’s petrol vehicle ban; awaiting Trump’s signature.}
• _{Vice President Vance to speak at Bitcoin 2025 (28 May).}
• _{Fed’s Waller: Tariff relief could lead to rate cuts in H2 2025.}
• _{White House: No secret monetary talks in progress.}
• _{UK may seasonally adjust CPI to improve inflation accuracy.}

Markets, energy, and institutions

• _{OPEC+ considers raising oil output by 411,000 bpd in July.}
• _{Apple, Tesla and Nvidia to be listed as tokenised assets on Kraken exchange.}
• _{US suspends Harvard’s enrolment of international students; others may follow.}

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

• _{Technical breakout: EUR/USD has broken to the upside from a wedge formation, signalling a bullish continuation.}
• _{Target projection: The pattern implies a measured move target at 1.1573.}
• _{Opening expectation: Some early-session selling may occur, but downside is expected to remain limited.}
• _{Support zone: Custom support is identified at 1.1262, providing a potential dip-buying opportunity.}
• _{Strategy: We anticipate further upside and aim to establish long positions early in the session.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 1.1473, target 2: 1.1573.

XAU/USD

• _{Overall trend: The broader trend remains firmly bullish.}
• _{Current structure: Price action appears to be establishing a base, suggesting potential support formation.}
• _{Near-term outlook: A short-term pullback is anticipated.}
• _{Strategy: Our preferred approach is to buy on dips in alignment with the prevailing trend.}
• _{Key support: Custom support is identified at 3275.0, providing a potential entry zone.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 3431, target 2: 3440.

DE40

• _{Trend outlook: There’s no clear sign that the current uptrend is nearing exhaustion.}
• _{Market context: While our broader bias remains bullish, a corrective pullback is possible and would not compromise the overall upward structure.}
• _{Trade consideration: Buying at current levels offers a poor risk/reward setup — patience is key.}
• _{Confirmation level: A break above 24,250 would reaffirm bullish momentum.}
• _{Upside target: The projected measured move points towards 24,600.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 24,550, target 2: 24,600.

NEWS HEADLINES

Foreign exchange

• _{EUR/USD fell 47 pips to 1.1282 as Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index met expectations at 87.5.}
• _{US Dollar Index rose 0.37 points to 99.92, reversing recent losses.}
• _{USD/JPY climbed 23 pips to 143.90 after Japan’s core inflation accelerated to 3.5% YoY in April.}
• _{GBP/USD edged down 3 pips to 1.3414 in a quiet session.}
• _{AUD/USD dropped 27 pips to 0.6408 amid risk-off sentiment.}
• _{USD/CHF rose 30 pips to 0.8281, while USD/CAD slipped 4 pips to 1.3855.}

Commodities and stocks

• _{US equities closed flat; Dow dipped 1 point, S&P 500 fell 2 points, Nasdaq 100 added 32 points.}
• _{Snowflake jumped 13.43% on strong earnings.}
• _{Urban Outfitters surged 22.97% after upbeat results.}
• _{Advance Auto Parts soared 57.04% on surprise profit beat.}
• _{US 10-year Treasury yield fell 6.2 bps to 4.535%, signalling a shift to safer assets.}
• _{Weekly US jobless claims dropped to 227,000, beating expectations.}
• _{US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May, pointing to sector expansion.}
• _{European indices ended lower: DAX -0.51%, CAC -0.58%, FTSE 100 -0.54%.}
• _{Gold slid USD 20 to USD 3,295 per ounce on profit-taking.}
• _{WTI crude dipped USD 0.37 to USD 61.20 amid reports of potential OPEC+ supply increase.}

Asian session updates

• _{USD/JPY eased to 143.62 as stronger Japanese inflation raised policy expectations.}
• _{EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1310; GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3440.}
• _{Gold held steady near USD 3,296 per ounce in early Asian trade.}

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