The upcoming week is poised to be pivotal for global financial markets as investors navigate a landscape marked by heightened volatility stemming from recent US tariff implementations.
Key corporate earnings reports, economic indicators, and central bank communications will be in focus as market participants assess the broader economic implications of escalating trade tensions.
KEY INDICATORS
Central bank communications
Market participants will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials for any indications on future monetary policy.
The release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday will provide a regional economic overview ahead of the upcoming policy meeting.
Wednesday, 23 April
US new home sales (March): Providing insights into the housing market’s response to current economic conditions.
Thursday, 24 April
US existing home sales (March): Further data on housing market trends.
Weekly jobless claims: Offering a snapshot of the labour market’s resilience.
Friday, 25 April
US durable goods orders (March): Indicating business investment trends.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (April final): Assessing consumer confidence amid economic uncertainties.
Economic events for the coming week include a slew of major companies set to report earnings, providing insights into how businesses are coping with the current economic climate.
MARKET MOVERS
European stocks pare losses following European Central Bank interest rate cut
European stock markets pared losses to close nearly flat on Thursday following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 0.1% lower.
Regionally, the UK’s FTSE 100 was little changed for the session.
Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell by 0.5%.
As widely expected, the European Central Bank trimmed interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points amid concerns over the eurozone’s economic growth outlook in a time of uncertainty over global trade and tariffs.
ECB cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
The ECB on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as was widely expected ahead of the decision.
Markets had priced in around a 94% chance of such a cut, and around a 6% chance of a larger, 50 basis point reduction.
This takes the central bank’s deposit facility rate, its key rate, to 2.25% — down from highs of 4% in mid-2023.
EUR/USD
Preferred long preference
Long positions above 1.14686 with targets at 1.15719 & 1.16963 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 1.12731 look for further upside with 1.11543 & 1.10423 as targets.
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average.
Earnings report news
First-quarter earnings season is due to begin during the second full week of April, led by banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
Analysts at US financial data group FactSet estimate a year-on-year earnings growth rate of 7.3% for the S&P 500 companies, which would mark the seventh consecutive quarter of earnings growth reported by the index.
Companies are beating Q1 earnings estimates so far. Some big results are up next
The first-quarter earnings season is off to a softish start by some measures, according to new research, but another quarter of year-on-year growth still looks likely.
Based on preliminary results—just 12% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, according to analysis released late Thursday by FactSet—70% of reporting companies in the benchmark index have come in above Street estimates.
Earnings have come in 6.1% above estimates, also below the five- and ten-year averages.
The S&P 500’s first-quarter results are still projected to grow for a seventh consecutive quarter.
A combination of reported results and estimates for those yet to report indicates growth of 7.2% so far.
Key:PMO = Pre-market open | AMC = After market close | E = Estimated
XAU/USD
Potential short preference
Short positions below 3335.79 with targets at 3325.56 & 3311.12 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 3356.26 look for further upside with 3368.29 & 3380.33 as targets.
The index currently faces a challenging resistance.
Gold starts coming back to Switzerland from US after exclusion from Trump’s tariffs
Gold, which traders had been flying to New York since December as a precaution against the possibility of broad US tariffs hitting bullion imports, is being shipped back to Switzerland, where it originated, official data shows.
Swiss customs data on Thursday showed that the country’s gold imports from the US rose to a thirteen-month high of 25.5 metric tonnes in March, from 12.1 tonnes in February.
Gold exports from Switzerland to the US fell 32% month-on-month to 103.2 tonnes.
Gold, silver, and platinum worth more than USD 80 billion were delivered to Comex warehouses in the December–March period, keeping logistics firms and Swiss refineries busier than usual.
Part of what is currently being delivered out of the US gold vaults is returning to Switzerland, the world’s biggest bullion refining and transit hub, said a source at a Swiss refinery.
NEWS HEADLINES
Oil prices slip 1% after progress in US-Iran talks
Oil prices fell more than 1% at Monday’s open in Asia after nuclear talks between the United States and Iran progressed, easing supply concerns.
Brent crude futures slipped 78 cents, or 1.15%, to USD 67.18 a barrel at 10:12 PM GMT.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was at USD 63.91 a barrel, down 77 cents, or 1.19%.
The two countries agreed on Saturday to begin drafting a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after talks that a US official described as yielding “very good progress.”
Japan seeks ‘fairness’ in currency talks with US, Prime Minister Ishiba says
Japan will emphasise “fairness” in any discussions with the US on exchange rates, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday, as bilateral trade talks gain global attention during President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive.
Trump has imposed 24% tariffs on Japanese exports to the US, although, like most of Trump’s levies, they have been paused until early July.
A 10% universal rate remains in place, as does a 25% duty on cars, a mainstay of Japan’s export-reliant economy.
Stock futures fall after Wall Street posts another losing week
Stock futures fell on Sunday evening following yet another negative trading week for Wall Street.
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.5%.
Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.5%.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 214 points, or 0.5%.
These moves come after each of the three major averages logged a third weekly decline in the last four trading weeks.
