Forex market analysis: 6 March 2025

2025/3/6

Gold prices edged above $2,920 per ounce, as markets reassessed the impact of U. S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. These added jitters to the markets, leading to a weaker U. S. dollar and bolstering the demand for the safe-haven asset.

Gold Prices Hold Near Record Highs on Tariff Rollout

Trump announced a temporary one-month exemption for U. S. automakers from the newly imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, offering some relief to the industry. Officials hinted at the possibility of removing the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports if they meet trade agreement requirements.

However, the broader picture remains uncertain, as the U. S., Canada, Mexico, and China continue to engage in tariff battles.

At the same time, the latest policy shifts from President Donald Trump have prompted China to file a revised consultation request with the World Trade Organization (WTO), challenging the latest U. S. levies. Retaliatory measures from affected countries have further clouded the global economic outlook, reinforcing the appeal of gold as a hedge against market instability.

Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Bets Further Supports Gold

The dollar weakened despite ongoing trade war threats, with broad-based selling pressure seen across major currencies, which also provided further support for gold prices. Traders are closely watching the upcoming U. S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could shape expectations for the next policy moves from the Federal Reserve.

Private sector employment growth slowed to a seven-month low, fueling speculation that the Fed may lean toward further rate cuts to cushion the economy. However, a surprising rebound in the U. S. services sector has suggested pockets of economic resilience, potentially complicating the decision-making process for the Fed.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) traded at $2,924.17, having tested a low of $2,894.40 before rebounding sharply toward $2,929.94, which now serves as the nearest resistance level. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) indicate consolidation, with price action stabilizing around key levels. The MACD is turning positive, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually building.

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Picture: Gold steadies near $2,924, eyeing a breakout above $2,930, as seen on the VT Markets app

For further upside, a breakout above $2,930 could lead to a test of the range between $2,940 and $2,950, where sellers may re-emerge. On the downside, support remains firm at $2,894, and a break below this level could trigger declines toward $2,880.

If economic uncertainty persists and the dollar remains under pressure, gold could test new highs. However, any signs of trade de-escalation or stronger-than-expected US economic data could limit further gains.