Forex market analysis: 27 May 2025

2025/5/27

Markets are off to a cautious start this week, with investors keeping a close eye on a mix of global developments. Trade tensions, quiet holiday trading, and a packed calendar of economic updates are all adding to the uncertainty. With big tech names like Nvidia set to report earnings and the Federal Reserve offering fresh insights, many traders are waiting for clearer signals before making their next move.

Nasdaq 100 dips as tech stocks retreat amid trade uncertainty and thin liquidity

US technology shares struggled to build on recent gains on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 slipping by 0.49% to close at 21,145.85.

The index had opened higher at 21,250.90 and briefly revisited that level before reversing course.

Early market optimism was driven by President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone a proposed 50% tariff on European Union imports, pushing the trade negotiation deadline back to 9 July.

Low trading volumes amid holiday closures and month-end positioning

With both US and UK markets shut on Monday for Memorial Day and the Spring Bank Holiday respectively, trading volumes remained subdued.

However, index futures posted solid gains overnight: Nasdaq futures advanced 1.26%, S&P 500 futures rose 1.11%, and FTSE futures climbed by 0.94%.

Tony Sycamore of IG highlighted that while the delay in EU tariffs gave markets a brief lift, investor attention is shifting towards month-end portfolio rebalancing and Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report.

The chip giant is expected to post a 65.9% year-on-year increase in Q1 revenue on Wednesday. As a key player in the artificial intelligence sector, Nvidia’s results are likely to influence sentiment across the broader tech landscape.

Technical analysis: Nasdaq 100 facing resistance near 21,250

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) rebounded sharply from a low of 20,679.4 on 24 May, regaining ground above the psychologically important 21,000 level.

NAS100 pulls back from 21266 peak as momentum fades; support at 21100 now under pressure, as seen on the VT Markets app.

The rally extended to a high of 21,266 before momentum faded, leading to a consolidation phase marked by a shallow descending channel.

The MACD histogram is showing signs of momentum flattening, while converging signal lines suggest market indecision or a potential short-term pullback.

The index is currently hovering just above minor support at 21,100. A sustained move below this level could open the door to further declines towards the 20,950–21,000 zone.

To re-establish bullish momentum, buyers would need to drive the index decisively above the 21,250 resistance level.

Market caution ahead of Nvidia earnings, Fed speeches, and PCE inflation data

Caution is prevailing in the markets as traders look ahead to several key events this week.

Nvidia is due to report its quarterly earnings mid-week, with expectations of strong growth reinforcing its status as a bellwether for the tech and AI sectors.

The outcome could set the tone for broader market sentiment, particularly within tech stocks.

Meanwhile, multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, and their comments will be closely analysed for any clues on future interest rate policy.

Adding to the uncertainty, Friday’s release of the core PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — could significantly influence rate expectations.

Together, these events are likely to keep investors in a holding pattern until clearer signals emerge.

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