Forex market analysis: 25 April 2025

2025/4/25

Investor sentiment is being pulled in different directions as trade policy rumours and political statements shape expectations for inflation and interest rates. In this shifting landscape, markets are quick to react to any signals from policymakers, highlighting just how sensitive the bond market remains to both economic and geopolitical developments.

Nikkei 225 rallies as tech sentiment improves and yen eases

The Nikkei 225 finished the week on a strong note after a volatile midweek performance, fuelled by renewed optimism in Japan’s technology sector and easing concerns over currency fluctuations.

The index briefly touched an intraday high of 35,639.13 before settling slightly lower at 35,534.13, still delivering solid weekly gains.

Investor sentiment improved after former US President Donald Trump adopted a more moderate tone on tariffs, describing the ongoing trade conflict as “unsustainable.”

Although China rejected claims of renewed dialogue with the US, market participants redirected their attention to corporate earnings and the semiconductor sector’s prospects.

A weakening yen, retreating from a seven-month high, also lifted export-driven stocks. Traders were reassured by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which signalled ongoing—but cautious—engagement with the US Treasury.

Technical outlook: Bullish momentum builds above key moving averages

Technically, the Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound from the intraday low of 34,749.13, establishing a clear upward trajectory heading into 25 April.

Nikkei claws back from the dip, reclaiming structure above key moving averages as bulls eye the 36,000 zone, seen on the VT Markets app.

The price moved decisively above the 30-period moving average, with a series of bullish candles indicating continued upward momentum toward the 35,639.13 resistance zone.

Although the index encountered minor resistance at recent highs, the MACD histogram remains in positive territory, with both the MACD and signal lines holding a bullish crossover.

Additionally, the 5- and 10-period moving averages are positioned above the 30-period MA, reinforcing short-term trend strength.

Immediate support is seen around 35,200, while a confirmed breakout above 35,650 could pave the way for a push towards the psychological barrier at 36,000.

Recent sideways movement in price suggests consolidation rather than reversal, with potential for a continuation of the current uptrend.

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