Forex market analysis: 21 April 2025

2025/4/21

Gold is once again capturing the spotlight as investors seek safety amid rising global uncertainty. Heightened geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and weakening major currencies are fuelling renewed interest in the precious metal. As traditional assets face mounting pressure, gold stands out as a reliable store of value, drawing strong demand from those looking to protect their wealth in turbulent times.

Gold rallies above USD 3,390 amid trade tensions and US dollar weakness

Gold prices surged past USD 3,390 on Monday, climbing more than 1 percent and marking a new all-time high.

The rise was driven by heightened safe-haven demand, as global trade tensions intensified, and the US dollar continued to lose ground.

With uncertainty dominating the economic landscape, gold is becoming an increasingly attractive refuge for investors seeking stability.

Rising trade tensions fuel demand for gold

The latest boost in gold prices followed an announcement by former US President Donald Trump, who launched an investigation into the potential introduction of new tariffs on all critical mineral imports.

This step, viewed as a significant escalation in the ongoing trade friction—especially with China—has added to investor anxiety and reinforced the demand for defensive assets such as gold.

US dollar decline enhances gold’s appeal

The decline of the US dollar, which dropped to a three-year low, has further strengthened gold’s position.

As the value of the greenback falls, gold becomes more affordable to buyers using other currencies, thereby increasing global demand and supporting its role as a hedge against currency depreciation.

ECB rate cut contributes to bullish sentiment

In addition to geopolitical concerns, recent monetary policy actions have also supported gold’s ascent.

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates has made the low-yield environment even less appealing for traditional investments.

As a result, gold is drawing interest from investors seeking alternative stores of value.

Technical analysis remains bullish

XAU/USD rose by 1.74 percent, ending the day at USD 3,389.75 after opening at USD 3,331.94.

Prices reached a high of USD 3,390.71 before slightly retreating.

The market’s technical structure remains strong, with short-term moving averages rising above longer-term ones, indicating ongoing upward momentum.

The MACD also signals a positive trend, as the MACD line remains above the signal line and the histogram stays in positive territory.

Outlook and levels to watch

With trade-related uncertainty lingering and the US dollar under pressure, gold may continue its upward trajectory.

XAU/USD surges past 3380 to test resistance at 3390.71, as seen on the VT Markets app.

Market participants are keeping a close eye on further developments in the US-China trade relationship and any additional moves from major central banks.

Immediate resistance is found near USD 3,390, and a breakout above this level could pave the way for further gains.

On the downside, support is currently observed around USD 3,320, with any easing in geopolitical tensions potentially triggering a short-term pullback.

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