Oil prices are moving sideways as traders weigh a mix of competing forces—from geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties to uneven global demand. While Asia shows signs of strength, broader market sentiment remains cautious due to lingering concerns around global growth, especially in light of ongoing negotiations and shifting economic signals from major players like the US and China.
Crude oil prices remained largely unchanged on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July contracts slipping slightly to USD 61.97, while Brent futures hovered near USD 65.35.
The market continues to face a push-pull dynamic driven by complex geopolitical developments, resilient demand from Asia, and lingering concerns over the economic outlook in both China and the United States.
A key point of uncertainty is the status of the US–Iran nuclear negotiations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister cautioned that the talks could stall if the US insists on a full cessation of uranium enrichment—seen as a major obstacle to restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement.
If revived, the deal could unlock 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day of additional Iranian oil supply, according to StoneX.
Meanwhile, physical demand in Asia remains supportive. Regional refineries are ramping up operations post-maintenance, encouraged by firm profit margins.
In particular, Singapore’s refining margins averaged above USD 6 per barrel in May, significantly higher than April’s USD 4.40, suggesting robust short-term buying interest.
However, upside momentum is limited amid persistent macroeconomic concerns. A recent sovereign credit downgrade by Moody’s has added pressure to sentiment around global growth, especially for the US, the world’s largest oil consumer.
Additionally, China’s weaker-than-expected industrial production and tepid retail sales have raised fresh doubts about the pace of recovery in global oil demand.
According to BMI, Chinese oil consumption is projected to fall 0.3% year-on-year in 2025, even with potential stimulus policies.
Analysts noted that any economic support measures may take time to feed through into stronger fuel demand.
Traders are also monitoring developments in Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. A breakthrough could lead to a shift in Western sanctions, possibly allowing more Russian crude back into international markets—creating further pressure on supply dynamics, ING noted.
WTI crude oil continues to consolidate, with prices holding within a narrow band after bouncing off support near USD 60.98 and peaking at USD 62.68.
On the 15-minute chart, price movement has flattened, with candles clustering above the 30-period moving average.
Short-term MAs (5 and 10) are converging, signalling a pause in directional momentum.
The MACD histogram is showing a weakening bullish trend, with a potential bearish crossover near the zero line—indicating that buyers may be losing control.
Still, the price remains above the key support zone at USD 61.80, offering near-term stability.
Immediate resistance lies between USD 62.30 and USD 62.70, while a drop below USD 61.80 may pave the way toward USD 61.07.
If bulls manage a strong close above USD 62.30, a renewed push higher could follow. Until then, the short-term bias remains neutral to slightly bearish.
With WTI crude stuck between USD 60.98 and USD 62.68, the market remains directionless, awaiting more decisive signals.
Price action is likely to stay range-bound unless there are clear developments in US–Iran talks, Chinese economic policy, or global diplomatic efforts.
Traders are advised to stay flexible and monitor headlines closely for any shift in fundamentals that could trigger a breakout from the current consolidation.
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