As the second quarter of 2025 begins, global markets will focus on manufacturing activity, labour market trends, and central banks’ outlooks. Investors will look for fresh economic signals to assess whether global growth is stabilising or slowing after the first quarter.
KEY INDICATORS
Global manufacturing PMI reports (March final readings)
Eurozone, UK, and US ISM manufacturing PMI will provide insights into factory activity.
Weak numbers may raise recession fears, while strong data could signal economic resilience.
US ADP employment report (March)
A preview of Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP), this report will give clues about job growth trends.
A strong labour market may support a hawkish Fed stance, impacting stocks and bonds.
OPEC+ meeting & oil price movements
Energy markets will be watching for any adjustments in production quotas.
Oil price volatility could impact inflation expectations and energy stocks.
Federal Reserve commentary
Several Fed officials are expected to speak, potentially offering guidance on inflation and interest rates.
Any hawkish signals could boost the US dollar while pressuring equities.
MARKET MOVERS
Nasdaq 100
Possible long preference
Long positions above 19433.02 with targets at 19523.37 & 19677.91 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 19307.01 look for further downside with 19221.42 & 19093.03 as targets.
The RSI lacks momentum.
Stock futures slip ahead of Trump tariffs
Stock futures slipped early Wednesday as Wall Street braced for the expected rollout of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 lost 0.16%.
Nasdaq-100 futures were 0.15% lower.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 63 points, or 0.15%.
According to The Washington Post, which cited three sources familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is also considering imposing tariffs of roughly 20% on most imports coming into the country. However, the report said that advisers cautioned that several options are still on the table.
During Tuesday’s session, the S&P 500 finished about 0.4% higher, seesawing between gains and losses throughout the chaotic trading day.
The Nasdaq Composite also ended the day roughly 0.9% higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally lower.
Gold prices edge lower from record highs as Trump tariffs loom
Gold prices inched lower in Asian trading on Wednesday after hitting an all-time high in the previous session, as traders awaited specific details on US President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariffs.
XAU/USD inched 0.3% lower to USD 3,116.24 per ounce by 4:57 AM GMT, after rising by 0.4% in early Asian trading.
It reached a record high of USD 3,149.03 on Tuesday.
Gold futures expiring in June were largely unchanged at USD 3,146.06 an ounce.
The yellow metal had hit consecutive fresh record highs in the last four sessions, but traders were cautious on the day of Trump’s tariffs, leading to increased volatility on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index inched up 0.1% in Asian hours.
Other precious metals were higher. Platinum futures rose 0.3% to USD 1,009.65 an ounce.
Silver futures gained 0.7% to USD 34.523 an ounce.
XAU/USD
Possible long preference
Long positions above 3138.25 with targets at 3146.97 & 3158.96 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 3122.33 look for further downside with 3114.70 & 3100.12 as targets.
The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
TODAY’S NEWS HEADLINES
Europe stocks close higher ahead of US tariff launch
European markets closed higher on Tuesday, rebounding as global investors braced for US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, set to come into effect on Wednesday.
The regional Stoxx 600 index closed 1.07% higher, slightly paring gains after The Washington Post reported that White House aides had drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US.
Stocks were boosted after eurozone inflation cooled as expected to 2.2% in March, according to data released by Eurostat.
Germany: The DAX index of German blue chips led gains among major bourses on Tuesday, rising 1.7%.
Asia-Pacific markets recover from prior session’s sell-off as investors await clarity on Trump tariffs
Asia-Pacific markets mostly climbed on Tuesday, recovering from a sharp sell-off in the previous session as investors awaited clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.04% to end the day at 7,925.20, after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 4.1%, in line with expectations, as the country heads to the polls on 3 May.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 pared earlier gains to end the day flat at 35,624.48.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi index advanced 1.62% to end the day at 2,521.39.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 pared earlier gains to end the day flat at 3,887.68.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 0.38% to close at 23,206.84.
Oil, dollars, and debt: how safe is the Middle East from the global trade war?
For the Middle East, which has so far been spared tariffs, there are still reasons to worry – as well as potential opportunities.
The blow to growth from a trade war is likely to hurt the price of oil – the mainstay of the region’s economy.
There are also immediate costs to countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain.
The global trade war triggered by US President Donald Trump shows no sign of abating, with tit-for-tat tariffs hammering major economies, tanking stock markets, and dimming growth prospects.
The economies concerned – North America, the European Union, and China – face highly uncertain futures. But for the Middle East, which has so far been spared additional levies, there are still reasons to worry – as well as opportunities to take advantage of.
