Bitcoin’s recent rebound signals renewed optimism, but uncertainty still clouds the market. Key drivers include shifting investor sentiment, emerging technical patterns, and signs that the recovery may still face challenges ahead.
Bitcoin has clawed its way back after intense selling pressure brought it dangerously close to the $100,000 threshold — a level many traders consider psychologically significant.
The leading cryptocurrency is now trading around $108,320, marking a 1.9% increase in the past 24 hours.
This recovery comes after a sharp drop to $101,270, prompting questions about whether the worst is over. While this bounce hints at short-term stabilisation, broader sentiment remains cautious.
Short-term holders (STHs) — investors who typically hold BTC for less than 155 days — have recently reduced their exposure, offloading a net 833,000 BTC over the last month.
This mirrors behaviour seen during April’s decline, where a similar sell-off triggered a low near $74,500.
The inability to hold above the all-time high of $111,814 has further rattled this cohort, contributing to volatility in recent weeks.
Despite the shaky fundamentals, technical analysis paints a more optimistic picture — at least for now. Bitcoin has managed to break through key resistance at $106,600, with price action showing a series of higher lows.
This structure supports the possibility of further upside, with short-term targets set at $108,300 and $110,000 if momentum holds.
The MACD on the 15-minute chart has turned bullish, with green histogram bars and a rising signal line indicating improving momentum.
Bitcoin has also reclaimed the 5, 10, and 30-period moving averages, further reinforcing the short-term bullish case.
However, technical strength alone may not be enough to drive sustained gains without broader market support.
Underneath the surface, signs of fragility remain. Long-term holders have started to trim their positions, and an increase in retail investor activity could make the market more susceptible to sharp reversals.
With ongoing regulatory uncertainty, global macro risks, and upcoming announcements from the US Federal Reserve, the current rebound remains vulnerable.
Key levels to monitor include $110,000 on the upside, while $106,600 now acts as a short-term support zone.
A break below that could lead to a retest of $103,000 — and if that fails, Bitcoin may once again be at risk of dropping below the $100K mark.
For now, the market stands at a critical juncture, balancing cautious optimism with underlying structural risks.
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