Global markets jumped on signs of easing trade tensions, but the mood didn’t last in US tech stocks. Optimism gave way to caution as investors weighed the credibility of shifting policy signals and the persistence of inflation. While Asian and European markets held onto gains, Wall Street lost steam—highlighting the fragile confidence driving recent price action.
Global equity markets surged overnight, yet the Nasdaq 100 struggled to maintain early momentum, closing Thursday’s session 1.26% lower at 18,924.20.
The index briefly touched 19,244.60 earlier in the day but later reversed gains as US tech sentiment weakened.
Investors grew cautious amid concerns over the durability of policy relief and its ability to support long-term growth in the tech sector.
Markets initially welcomed President Donald Trump’s decision to delay most new tariffs for 90 days, fuelling a strong relief rally across Asia and Europe.
However, optimism faded quickly as investors assessed the fine print—tariffs on Chinese goods were hiked to 125%, and a blanket 10% tariff remains on all other imports.
The limited scope of the pause reignited concerns about policy clarity and leadership direction.
Commentators noted the erratic nature of White House decisions during a time of elevated market stress.
Martin Whetton from Westpac described the reaction as markets watching on “with horror,” as policy pivots were accompanied by distractions like executive orders on water pressure.
While Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared by 8% and European futures jumped similarly, US tech stocks failed to follow suit.
A growing “sell America” trend appears to be taking hold, with capital flows shifting towards traditional safe havens such as the yen, Swiss franc, and gold, rather than the US dollar or equity indices.
Following a sharp sell-off in the bond market, US 10-year Treasury yields moderated to 4.2774%, down from a recent high of 4.5150% that had sparked fears of another “dash for cash.”
Despite this easing, structural concerns remain. Analysts at LPL Financial highlighted persistent inflation, reduced global demand, hedge fund deleveraging, and market illiquidity as ongoing threats to stability.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting confirmed policymakers remain focused on taming inflation, showing little urgency to cut rates.
Market expectations for rate cuts by year-end have adjusted accordingly, now pricing in 80 basis points of easing, down from 100 earlier this week.
From the recent low at 16,633.95, the Nasdaq 100 has staged a strong V-shaped recovery, with price action shifting decisively from lower lows to higher highs.
Momentum indicators remain supportive—the MACD crossed bullishly well below the zero line, with growing green histogram bars suggesting underlying strength.
Moving averages across the 5, 10, and 30-period windows are stacked in a bullish formation, reinforcing the upward trend.
The index has cleared multiple resistance levels, including the psychological 18,000 mark, and peaked near 19,244.60.
However, it has since entered sideways consolidation just below this zone, with the 18,600–18,800 region now acting as key support.
A move above 19,250 could signal renewed upside and pave the way for a test of earlier highs.
However, traders should watch for a MACD rollover or a breakdown in the moving average stack, which may suggest fading momentum.
The Nasdaq 100’s inability to sustain gains—despite widespread global optimism—signals growing scepticism around the effectiveness of recent policy moves.
Escalating tariffs on Chinese goods and a resolute Federal Reserve suggest that pressure on corporate margins may persist, particularly in the tech sector.
Unless upcoming CPI and PPI data show an unexpected softening in inflation, volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Support for the Nasdaq 100 lies around the 18,500 level; a drop below that may open the door to a deeper retracement towards 16,600. On the upside, resistance remains firm at 19,250.
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