Week ahead: Trump tariffs to stir market turbulence

As we approach the week of 7 to 11 April 2025, several key developments are poised to influence global financial markets. Market participants are closely monitoring President Trump’s tariff policies and their potential economic implications, as well as upcoming economic data and earnings reports. These events could significantly shape investor sentiment and market trends in the short term.

KEY INDICATORS

Trump’s tariff policy and market impact

• _{2 April: President Trump declared a national emergency over the US trade deficit, invoking the IEEPA and introducing a two-tier tariff system.}
• _{5 April: A 10% baseline tariff will take effect on all imports at 12:01 a.m. EDT.}
• _{9 April: Additional “reciprocal” tariffs will target countries with large trade surpluses with the US.}
• _{Global markets reacted negatively, with sharp declines in Asian equities reflecting investor concerns over trade disruptions.}
• _{Economists warned that tariffs could push inflation above 4%, straining household budgets and dampening consumer spending.}
• _{The policy risks triggering a global trade conflict, with affected countries considering retaliatory measures that may destabilise international trade relations.}

Key US economic data releases

• _{10 April: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will track changes in consumer-level inflation.}
• _{11 April: Producer Price Index (PPI) for March will reflect trends in wholesale pricing.}
• _{11 April: Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for April will gauge public confidence in the economic outlook.}

Earnings season and Fed update

• _{7 April: Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.66 on USD 547.99 million in revenue, marking an 8.5% year-on-year decline.}
• _{7 April: Levi Strauss (LEVI) is projected to post EPS of USD 0.28 on USD 1.54 billion in revenue, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year decrease.}
• _{7 April: Greenbrier Companies (GBX) is scheduled to announce its earnings; details are yet to be disclosed.}
• _{9 April: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its March FOMC meeting, providing insight into its economic outlook and potential policy direction.}
• _{10 April: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is expected to report continued growth, following a 21% increase in adjusted profit and an 11% rise in revenue in the previous quarter.}
• _{10 April: Wells Fargo (WFC) is anticipated to provide an update on its financial performance amid evolving economic conditions.}

MARKET MOVERS

XAU/USD

• _{The primary trend remains bullish.}
• _{We anticipate a temporary pullback.}
• _{Any setbacks should be contained around yesterday’s low.}
• _{The preferred strategy is to buy on dips.}
• _{Key support is found at 3075.0.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 3135 // Target 2: 3145.

GER40 DAX

• _{There is no clear signal that the downward trend is nearing its end.}
• _{While our overall outlook remains bearish, a corrective bounce is possible without altering the prevailing downtrend.}
• _{We anticipate a higher correction.}
• _{Entering a sell position at current levels presents a poor risk/reward setup.}
• _{A break below 21,700 will confirm the continuation of bearish momentum.}
• _{The measured move target is 21,500.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 21,600 // Target 2: 21,500.

EUR/USD

• _{The pair continued its upward momentum from 1.0778, recording net daily gains yesterday.}
• _{It is currently trading at its highest level in the past six months.}
• _{A key Fibonacci confluence zone is found at 1.1105.}
• _{Our medium-term outlook remains bearish below 1.1014, with a target towards 1.0700.}
• _{While there is potential for slight buying at the open, any gains are expected to be capped.}

Trade opportunity: Target 1: 1.0837 // Target 2: 1.0700.

NEWS HEADLINES

Market reaction to tariff announcements

• _{The US Dollar Index fell by 1.69%, closing at 101.94, reflecting investor concerns over the tariff announcement.}
• _{The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since October, closing at 4.0620%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.7490%.}
• _{Spot gold fluctuated wildly with a daily range exceeding USD 110, closing down 0.76% at USD 3114.28 per ounce.}
• _{Spot silver closed down 6.11%, at USD 31.82 per ounce, amid market volatility.}
• _{WTI crude oil fell by 5.8%, closing at USD 66.56 per barrel, and Brent crude dropped 4.79%, closing at USD 69.81 per barrel due to the tariffs and OPEC+ production increases.}

Stock market performance: US & global declines

• _{The Nasdaq dropped 5.97%, its largest single-day loss since March 2020, while the S&P 500 fell by 4.84%, and the Dow Jones dropped 3.98%.}
• _{The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 9.88%, and the KBW Bank Index dropped by 9.86%, its biggest decline since the regional banking crisis.}
• _{Major tech stocks were all down: Apple fell over 9%, Amazon and Meta lost over 8%, Nvidia dropped over 7%, and Tesla fell over 5%.}
• _{European stocks saw broad declines: the DAX30 dropped 3.08%, the FTSE 100 fell 1.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 3.6%.}
• _{Hong Kong stocks opened sharply lower with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.52% and the Tech Index falling 2.09%, although both indices recovered slightly towards the close.}

Chinese A-shares market & broader economic impact

• _{The Shanghai Composite fell 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.86%.}
• _{Agricultural and logistics stocks showed strength, while automotive and industrial equipment sectors underperformed, reflecting global trade uncertainties.}

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